The week ending Friday, November 13 saw ICE cotton futures decline a little over a cent in a bumpy down-trend that turned sideways. The most active Mar’27 settled Friday at 82.61 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices were flat-to-mixed through Thursday, while the A-Index of world cotton prices was flat-to-higher.
Other agricultural futures followed various paths through Thursday of this week. CBOT corn traded flat, then shot up fifteen cents on bullish WASDE numbers, then traded flat-to-lower. CBOT soybean futures traced a similar weekly pattern as corn, but ended the week flatter. KC wheat futures traced a very slight up-trend across the week before taking on Thursday. WTI oil futures trended lower, flattened out, and finally launched into a partial recovery by Thursday. The U.S. dollar index started the week in a gradual down-trend which shifted into in somewhat steeper uptrend through Thursday.
Cotton-focused news this week included minor and price neutral supply and demand adjustments from USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA NASS’s weekly publication of their cotton progress rates showed 94 % boll opening and 71% harvesting, which were 4% behind and 8% ahead, respectively, from their five year averages, through November 8, 2026. The distribution of anecdotal cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down for the regional descriptions). This week saw widespread rainfall over southern Texas and portions of the southeastern Cotton Belt, possibly lowering color grades on un-harvested 2026 cotton. Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending November 5 were 157,300 running bales of upland cotton. This reflects a down-shift compared to recent weeks. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments picked up a bit, week over week, but remained below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. This is not unusual for this time of the year. Reported demand indicators included a pick up in spot trading, light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region.
Through Tuesday, November 10, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were lower, compared to the previous day, Combined with the declining futures settlements through Tuesday, this had the appearance of net long liquidation early in the week. The week was dominated by regularly scheduled, high volume fund rolling (i.e., index funds selling December positions and buying March). The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for November 3) reflected early net long liquidation. Specifically, there were 4,798 fewer hedge fund longs reinforced by a 3,706 contraction of the index fund net long position, all compared to last week. This combined long liquidation outweighed a 1,842 increase in new shorts, week over all, which explains the decline in open interest. Note: the November 10 CFTC CIT report is delayed due to the Veteran’s Day holiday and will be released Monday, November 16.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that may or may not be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels continued its recent rebound week ending November 12. This could be interpreted bearishly, e.g., positioning for delivery to the Board instead of satisfying commercial demand. Or it may be a price neutral reflection of the arbitrage process. On the other hand, while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills., i.e.,. a bullish indicator.
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