Through Thursday, October 8, the weekly pattern of ICE cotton futures involved a three cent climb, followed by a two cent slide, and then a narrowly gyrating finish. The most active Dec’26 contract settled Thursday at 79.94 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices were on holiday this week while. the A-Index of world cotton prices crept higher.
Other agricultural futures followed somewhat similar paths for the week ending Thursday, October 8. CBOT corn futures began and ended trading sideways on either side of a big peak in the middle. KC wheat futures had a similar pattern as corn, peaking mid-week at over $8.50 per bu. before sliding back to $7.50. CBOT soybeans also began sideways, stepped higher, but then traded sideways in the elevated range. WTI oil futures traded in a similar pattern as soybeans. Unlike the physical commodities, the U.S. dollar index widely gyrating sideways pattern across the week.
Cotton-focused news this week include updated supply and demand numbers from USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA NASS published their regular weekly rates of boll opening and harvesting which were -2% and 2%, respectively, from their five year averages, through October 5. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition showed 33% in the Good-Excellent category with another 30% rated Fair. The distribution of cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down for the regional descriptions). A strong cool front brought widespread rains across Texas, but it is likely only degrading lint quality at this point. Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending October 1 were 165,100 running bales of upland cotton. This is a decline from the previous week, as well as a weak resulting level. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments remained below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. Reported demand indicators included a pick up in spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. South Texas, for example, reported active spot trading and moderate supplies, which makes seasonal sense.
Through Thursday, October 8, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were mixed, first lower then higher, compared to the previous day. Along with the rising price settlements, this suggests short covering early in the week. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for September 29) reflected short positioning. Specifically, there were 3,393 more hedge fund shorts, week over week. This was reinforced by 2,458 fewer (liquidated) hedge fund longs as well as a 1,798 contraction in the index fund net long position, all compared to last week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that appears to be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills., i.e.,. a bullish indicator.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.