The week ending Friday, November 6 saw ICE cotton futures zig-zag higher, lower, and then higher again before leveling out into a sideways pattern. The nearby Dec’26 contract settled Thursday at 78.71 cents per pound, and then ended on a high note Friday with a 79.11 settlement. Chinese cotton prices declined through Wednesday, as did the A-Index of world cotton prices.
Other agricultural futures followed various paths this week. CBOT corn and soybean futures both rose, leveled off, and then declined in an overall hump-shaped pattern. KC wheat futures gyrated lower-to-sideways across the week. WTI oil futures followed a bumpy downward trajectory, as did the U.S. dollar index, albeit bumpier. Dollar weakness (and hence cotton strength) was partially attributed to the blue wave election results, which assumes more federal government gridlock.
Cotton-focused news this week included USDA NASS’s weekly publication of their cotton progress rates of 92 % boll opening and 63% harvesting, which were 3% behind and 9% ahead, respectively, from their five year averages, through November 1, 2026. The distribution of anecdotal cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down for the regional descriptions). This week saw widespread rainfall over large portions of the Cotton Belt, possibly lowering color grades, if anything. Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending October 29 were 277,500 running bales of upland cotton. This reflects a continued improvement over recent weeks. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments slowed a bit more, week over week, remaining below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. This is not unusual for this time of the year. Reported demand indicators included a pick up in spot trading, light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region.
Through Thursday, November 5, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were lower, compared to the previous day, Combined with the declining futures settlements through Tuesday, this had the appearance of long liquidation early in the week. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for *November 3) reflected early net long liquidation. Specifically, there were 4,798 fewer hedge fund longs reinforced by a 3,706 contraction of the index fund net long position, all compared to last week. This combined long liquidation outweighed a 1,842 increase in new shorts, week over all, which explains the decline in open interest.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that may or may not be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels bottomed and sharply rebounded for the week ending November 5. This could be interpreted bearishly, e.g., positioning for delivery to the Board instead of satisfying commercial demand. On the other hand, while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills., i.e.,. a bullish indicator.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.