For the week ending Friday, September 4, ICE cotton futures peaked and then slid lower in a manner, to quote a friend, “not for the faint of heart!” (see Dec’26 chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The most active Dec’26 settled Thursday at 86.45 cents per pound, down from 92.41 one week earlier. Friday saw little change with Dec’26 settling at 86.93 cents per pound going in to the holiday weekend. Chinese cotton prices were mostly lower this week, while the A-Index of world cotton prices was more mixed.
Other agricultural futures followed mixed paths this week. CBOT corn gyrated sideways while soybeans and KC wheat futures followed a slight and stronger up-trends, respectively, across the week. WIT oil futures trended up before leveling off. The U.S. dollar index gyrated sideways and then down-shifted lower.
Cotton-focused news this week included USDA NASS’s published weekly rates of boll setting and boll opening that were nearly on par with their five year averages, through August 30. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition gained slightly more to 39% in the Good-Excellent category, while slipping to 29% rated Fair. The Cotton Belt received widely scattered rains from Arizona to Virginia, but little where it is most needed in northwestern Texas. The recent pattern of rainfall, or lack thereof, is reflected in the current drought monitor and also in the latest regional summaries for Texas (click here and scroll down). The latter descriptions support anecdotal evidence that the cotton crops in northwestern Texas are being damaged by current (and forecasted) dryness and heat. Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton were very low for the week ending August 27. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments were a little below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. Reported demand indicators included inactive to slow spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. On the other side of the world, various influences (e.g., South Asian monsoon, crop damage in Xinjiang, and reduced world acreage, particularly in Australia) could paint a potentially tighter global supply picture.
Through Thursday, August 27, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were mixed higher and lower compared to the previous day. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for September 1) clearly showed continued net long positioning early in the week. Specifically, there were 3,924 more hedge fund longs, week over week. This was slightly reinforced by a 547 decrease in hedge fund shorts compared to last week. Lastly, the index fund net long position expanded by 694 contracts, week over week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that is perhaps lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales rose past the level of unfixed call purchases.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.