The week ending Thursday, November 12 saw ICE cotton futures decline a little over a cent in a bumpy downtrend. The nearby Dec’26 contract settled Thursday at 78.67 cents per pound, which was within four points of the previous Thursday’s settlement. Chinese cotton prices were flat-to-mixed through Wednesday, while the A-Index of world cotton prices was flat-to-higher.
Other agricultural futures followed various paths through Thursday of this week. CBOT corn traded flat, then shot up fifteen cents, then traded flat-to-lower. CBOT soybean futures traced a similar weekly pattern as corn, but ended the week flatter. KC wheat futures traced a very sligiht uptrend across the week before taking on Thursday. WTI oil futures trended lower, flattened out, and finally launched into a partial recovery by Thursday. The U.S. dollar index started the week in a gradual down-trend which shifted into in somewhat steeper uptrend through Thursday.
Cotton-focused news this week included minor and price neutral supply and demand adjustments from USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA NASS’s weekly publication of their cotton progress rates showed 94 % boll opening and 71% harvesting, which were 4% behind and 8% ahead, respectively, from their five year averages, through November 8, 2026. The distribution of anecdotal cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down for the regional descriptions). This week saw widespread rainfall over large portions of the Cotton Belt, possibly lowering color grades, if anything. Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending October 29 were 277,500 running bales of upland cotton. This reflects a continued improvement over recent weeks. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments slowed a bit more, week over week, remaining below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. This is not unusual for this time of the year. Reported demand indicators included a pick up in spot trading, light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region.
Through Thursday, November 5, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were lower, compared to the previous day, Combined with the declining futures settlements through Tuesday, this had the appearance of long liquidation early in the week. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for *November 3) reflected early net long liquidation. Specifically, there were 4,798 fewer hedge fund longs reinforced by a 3,706 contraction of the index fund net long position, all compared to last week. This combined long liquidation outweighed a 1,842 increase in new shorts, week over all, which explains the decline in open interest.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that may or may not be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels bottomed and sharply rebounded for the week ending November 5. This could be interpreted bearishly, e.g., positioning for delivery to the Board instead of satisfying commercial demand. On the other hand, while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills., i.e.,. a bullish indicator.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.