The week ending Friday, October 30 saw ICE cotton futures glide lower and then come in for a landing. The nearby Dec’26 contract settled Thursday at 78.50 cents per pound, and then lower Friday at 77.83 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices were steadily lower across the week while the A-Index of world cotton prices was lower-to-mixed.
Other agricultural futures followed somewhat similar paths this week. CBOT corn and soybean futures both trended flat-to-lower while KC wheat futures followed a steadier down trend across the week. WTI oil futures followed a gyrating sideways pattern. The U.S. dollar index climbed, peaked, gyrated sideways, and then stepped lower by Thursday.
Cotton-focused news this week included USDA NASS’s weekly publication of their cotton progress rates of 89% boll opening and 52% harvesting, which were 3% behind and 7% ahead, respectively, from their five year averages, through October 25, 2026. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition showed 33% in the Good-Excellent category with another 30% rated Fair. The distribution of cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down for the regional descriptions). Scattered rains fell over several spots of the Cotton Belt this week, possibly lowering color grades, if anything. Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending October 22 were 216.500 running bales of upland cotton. This reflects a continued improvement over recent weeks. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments slowed a bit week over week, remaining below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. This is not unusual for this time of the year. Reported demand indicators included a pick up in spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. South Texas, for example, reported active spot trading and moderate supplies, which makes seasonal sense.
Through Thursday, October 29, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were lower, compared to the previous day, Combined with the mostly declining futures settlements through Tuesday, this appeared as long liquidation early in the week. Indeed, the most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for October 27) reflected early net long liquidation. Specifically, there were 4,886 fewer hedge fund longs reinforced by a 6,818 contraction of the index fund net long position, all compared to last week. This combined long liquidation outweighed a 5,986 increase in new shorts, week over all, which explains the decline in open interest.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that appears to be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. For what it’s worth, certified stock levels continued their two week bounce this week. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills., i.e.,. a bullish indicator.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.