For the week ending Friday, August 14, ICE cotton futures trended up and down within the low to mid 80s (see Dec’26 chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The Dec’26 contract settled Friday up 130 points at 84.80 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices had mixed higher and lower settlements this week, as was the A-Index of world cotton prices.
Other agricultural futures also followed mixed paths this week. CBOT corn traded flat, shifted higher at mid-week, and then resumed a sideways pattern. CBOT soybeans and KC wheat futures both followed a sideways pattern with a slight uptrend across the week. WTI oil futures rose, leveled off, and then gradually weakened. The U.S. dollar index also trended higher but then peaked and switched to a steeper decline than oil futures.
Cotton-focused news this week included rates of squaring, boll setting,and boll opening that were nearly on par with the five year average, through August 9. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition slipped a bit to 40% in the Good-Excellent category, with another 38% still rated Fair. Texas skies continued mostly clear/hot/dry while the eastern Cotton Belt continued to receive scattered rains (implied by radar, anyway). The recent pattern of rainfall, or lack thereof, is reflected in the current drought monitor and also in the regional summaries for Texas (click here and scroll down). The latter descriptions support anecdotal evidence that the cotton crops in northwestern Texas are being damaged by current (and forecasted) dryness and heat. While the current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton reflected cancellations, and carryover to the next marketing year, as well as fair new marketing year net sales. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments were below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. Reported demand indicators included inactive to slow spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. On the other side of the world, various influences (e.g., South Asian monsoon, crop damage in Xinjiang, and reduced world acreage, particularly in Australia) could paint a potentially tighter global supply picture.
Through Thursday, August 13, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest increased across the week. However, the mixed higher and lower price settlements over the same time period make the speculative positioning prediction less clear. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for August 11 clearly showed increased net long positioning. Specifically, there were 6,438 more hedge fund longs, week over week. This was slightly reinforced by a 539 decrease in hedge fund shorts compared to last week. Lastly, the index fund net long position expanded by 2,591 contracts, week over week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously have been a wet blanket on the market, but one that is perhaps lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales rose past the level of unfixed call purchases.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.