The week ending Thursday, October 22 saw ICE cotton futures rise, fall, and then flatten out. The nearby Dec’26 contract settled Thursday at 80.79 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices weakened at first, and then were mixed. The A-Index of world cotton prices was more mixed.
Other agricultural futures followed somewhat similar paths this week. CBOT corn and soybean futures both trended lower before bouncing back up a little on Thursday. KC wheat futures more steadily declined across the week. WTI oil futures followed a gyrating sidways pattern. The U.S. dollar index also gyrated sideways but with a gradual down trend.
Cotton-focused news this week included USDA NASS’s publication of their regular weekly rates of 85% boll opening and 41% harvesting, which were 4% behind and 4% ahead, respectively, from their five year averages, through October 18. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition showed 35% in the Good-Excellent category with another 28% rated Fair. The distribution of cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down for the regional descriptions). Rains fell over several areas of the Cotton Belt this week, probably affecting (negatively) grades more than anything else. Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending October 1 were 199,600 running bales of upland cotton. This is an improvement over recent weeks. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments also improved week over week although they remained below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. This is not unusual for this time of the year. Reported demand indicators included a pick up in spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. South Texas, for example, reported active spot trading and moderate supplies, which makes seasonal sense.
Through Wednesday, October 21, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were higher, compared to the previous day, through. Combined with the rising futures settlements, this appeared as new buying early in the week. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for October 13) reflected mixed positioning. Specifically, there were 3,665 fewer (liquidated) hedge fund longs, week over week. This outweighed the 1,185 fewer (covered) hedge fund shorts as well as a the 813 contract expansion of the index fund net long position, all compared to last week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that appears to be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills., i.e.,. a bullish indicator.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.