The week ending Thursday, October 15 saw ICE trade sideways in a roughly two cent range that narrowed as the week went on. The nearby Dec’26 contract settled Thursday at 80.06 cents per pound, roughly a half cent below last Friday’s settlement. Chinese cotton prices were mostly higher this week while the A-Index of world cotton prices was mixedyc.
Other agricultural futures followed somewhat similar paths for the week ending Thursday, October 15. CBOT corn and soybean futures, as well as KC wheat futures, all variously traded sideways. WTI oil futures trended upward across the week. The U.S. dollar index followed a widely gyrating sideways pattern across the week.
Cotton-focused news this week included USDA NASS’s publication of their regular weekly rates of boll opening and harvesting which were -1% and +2%, respectively, from their five year averages, through October 11. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition showed 34% in the Good-Excellent category with another 30% rated Fair. The distribution of cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down for the regional descriptions). Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending October 1 were 165,100 running bales of upland cotton. This is a decline from the previous week, as well as a weak resulting level. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments remained below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. Reported demand indicators included a pick up in spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. South Texas, for example, reported active spot trading and moderate supplies, which makes seasonal sense.
Through Thursday, October 15, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were higher, compared to the previous day. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for October 6) reflected mixed positioning. Specifically, there were 2,330 fewer (liquidated) hedge fund longs, week over week. This was outweighed by 5,521 fewer (covered) hedge fund shorts as well as a 4,603 contraction in the index fund net long position, all compared to last week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that appears to be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills., i.e.,. a bullish indicator.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.