Through Friday, October 2, the weekly pattern of ICE cotton futures was mostly a downhill slide from the low 80s to the upper 70s. This included a limit down move on Tuesday which was associated with the usual determinants (seasonality, weak oil, strong dollar) while coinciding with worrisome market news. On Friday the most active Dec’26 contract made a relatively modest bounce higher to settle at 78.88 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices were mixed higher and then lower across the week, as was the A-Index of world cotton prices.
Other agricultural futures followed different paths this week. CBOT corn took one big stair-step lower, while CBOT soybeans descended in more up-and-down pattern. KC wheat futures trended higher across the week in a similar up-and-down pattern as soybeans. WTI oil futures first gyrated lower and then sideways, while the U.S. dollar index followed a more steady up-trend across the week.
Cotton-focused news this week included USDA NASS’s published weekly rates of boll opening and harvesting which were 3% and 2%, respectively, above their five year averages, through September 28. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition showed 35% in the Good-Excellent category with another 30% rated Fair. The distribution of cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down). A strong cool front brought widespread rains across Texas, but it is likely only degrading lint quality at this point. Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending September 24 were 202,600 running bales of upland cotton, a bit lower than the previous week. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments remained below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. Reported demand indicators included a pick up in spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. South Texas, for example, reported active spot trading and moderate supplies, which makes seasonal sense.
Through Thursday, October 1, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were mixed, first higher and lower, compared to the previous day. Along with the declining price settlements, this suggests new short positioning early in the week. Indeed, the most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for September 29) reflected short positioning. Specifically, there were 3,393 more hedge fund shorts, week over week. This was reinforced by 2,458 fewer (liquidated) hedge fund longs as well as a 1,798 contraction in the index fund net long position, all compared to last week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that appears to be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills., i.e.,. a bullish indicator.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.