The holiday-shortened week ending July 2 saw ICE cotton futures gyrate sideways in a slight uptrend (see Dec’26 chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). Chinese cotton prices rose across the week, as did the the A-Index of world cotton prices.
Other agricultural futures followed similar paths for the week ending June 25. CBOT corn and soybeans, as well as KC wheat futures, all shifted from a flat-to-lower pattern into modest uptrend. WTI oil futures showed a mixed pattern this week, going from sideways to lower to bouncing on Thursday. The U.S. dollar index was mostly sideways this week before skipping lower on Thursday.
Cotton-focused news this week included a wrap-up of planting along with an unsurprising upward adjustment in planted acreage. Weekly U.S. cotton crop condition ratings slipped a bit but remain relatively good, matching up with continued rainfall. U.S. export net sales as of June 25 continued weak. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments continued to slip below USDA’s export target level. Reported demand indicators included inactive to active spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. On the other side of the world, various influences (e.g., South Asian monsoon, and reduced world acreage, particularly in Australia) could paint a tighter global supply picture.
Through Thursday, June 25, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest mostly increased compared the previous day. The corresponding increase in daily price settlements gave the appearance of new long positioning. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for June 23 showed more long positioning. Specifically, there were 5,637 more hedge fund longs, week over week. This was reinforced by a 1,610 decrease in hedge fund shorts compared to last week. Lastly, the index fund net long position expanded by 1,609 contracts, week over week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market, but one that is perhaps lifting. The rising certified stock levels in early 2026, and again since April, could reflect weak commercial demand for U.S. cotton. It remains true that unfixed call sales (representing potential/eventual futures buying by mills) have been at a relatively low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side. But more recently, unfixed call sales have been stabilizing/rising (see red line in the chart below). This is bringing them more into balance with unfixed call purchases, and contributing to futures buying.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.