For the week ending Thursday, August 27, ICE cotton futures gyrated sideways then took a gradual ascent that finished in a sharp rally (see Dec’26 chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The most active Dec’26 settled Thursday at 92.41, up three and a quarter cents per pound on the day. The new crop Dec’27 settled at 80.14 cents on Thursday. Chinese cotton prices mostly rose this week, while the A-Index of world cotton prices was flat-to-mixed.
Other agricultural futures also followed mostly similar paths this week. CBOT corn and soybeans, along with KC wheat and U.S. dollar index all trended higher through Thursday while WTI oil futures trended lower and then bottomed.
Cotton-focused news this week included USDA NASS’s published weekly rates of boll setting and boll opening that were either at (opening) or nearly (setting) on par with their five year averages, through August 23. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition slipped more to 37% in the Good-Excellent category, with another 34% still rated Fair. Texas skies continued mostly clear/searing/dry while the eastern and north central Cotton Belt continued to receive scattered rains (implied by radar, anyway). The recent pattern of rainfall, or lack thereof, is reflected in the current drought monitor and also in the late August regional summaries for Texas (click here and scroll down). The latter descriptions support anecdotal evidence that the cotton crops in northwestern Texas are being damaged by current (and forecasted) dryness and heat. Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton were fair for the week ending August 20 at under 100,000 running bales. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments were a littley below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. Reported demand indicators included inactive to slow spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. On the other side of the world, various influences (e.g., South Asian monsoon, crop damage in Xinjiang, and reduced world acreage, particularly in Australia) could paint a potentially tighter global supply picture.
Through Thursday, August 27, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest mostly increased across the week. The mostly increasing futures price settlements over the same time period had the appearance of more long positioning. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for August 18) clearly showed increased net long positioning. Specifically, there were 3,828 more hedge fund longs, week over week. This was slightly reinforced by a 380 decrease in hedge fund shorts compared to last week. Lastly, the index fund net long position expanded by 2,050 contracts, week over week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously have been a wet blanket on the market, but one that is perhaps lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales rose past the level of unfixed call purchases.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.