For the week ending Friday, September 25, the ICE cotton futures first shot higher and then traded sideways. The most active Dec’26 contract gyrated above and below the 83 cent level settling Friday at 82.71 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices were mixed to higher across week, while the A-Index of world cotton prices was a bit flatter.
Other agricultural futures followed different paths this week. CBOT corn stair-stepped higher, and then slid lower. CBOT soybeans shifted up into more of a sideways gyration, while KC wheat futures slid lower most of the week. WTI oil futures followed V-shaped pattern with a downtrend reversing into an up-trend. The U.S. dollar index climbed steadily across the week.
Cotton-focused news this week included USDA NASS’s published weekly rates of boll opening and harvesting which were 7% and 4%, respectively, above their five year averages, through September 20. Over the same time frame, the aggregate U.S. cotton crop condition showed 34% in the Good-Excellent category with another 31% rated Fair. The distribution of cotton crop condition varied across different regions of Texas (click here and scroll down). Current marketing year net export sales of upland cotton for the week ending September 17 were 230,500 running bales of upland cotton, a significant improvement over prior weeks. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments remained below USDA’s export target level for the 2026/27 marketing year. Reported demand indicators included inactive to slow spot trading, very light to moderate demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region. South Texas, for example, reported active spot trading and moderate supplies.
Through Thursday, September 24, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were mixed higher and lower compared to the previous day. The most recent Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for September 22) reflected long liquidation. Specifically, there were 17,479 fewer hedge fund longs, week over week. This outweighed 1,255 fewer (c0vered) hedge fund shorts as well as a 1,918 expansion in the index fund net long position, all compared to last week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may previously had been a wet blanket on the market, but one that appears to be lifting. The recently falling certified stock levels could reflect improving commercial demand for U.S. cotton. And while unfixed call sales were at a relatively low level earlier in 2026 (perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side) the level of unfixed call sales has risen past the level of unfixed call purchases. The former reflects buying (or potential buying) of cotton futures by mills., i.e.,. a bullish indicator.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.