The holiday-shortened week ending Friday, May 29 saw ICE cotton futures continue their recent down-trend and then level out is a sideways pattern (see Jul’26 chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The nearby Jul’26 contract settled down 62 points on Friday at 76.15 cents per pound.The new crop Dec’26 settled on Friday at 79.59 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices rose across the week ending May 27, while the A-Index of world cotton prices followed a modestly declining.
Other ag futures markets followed different paths for the week ending May 28. CBOT corn followed a large up-and-down gyration, while CBOT soybeans took a flatter sideways gyration (including a gap down). KC wheat had more of a down-trend across the week. ICE WTI gapped lower Monday and gyrated lower through Thursday. The U.S. dollar index followed more of a large sideways gyration with a shrinking oscillation.
Cotton-focused news this week included an near-par pace of planting and better moisture conditions/forecasts. We had yet another unspectacular U.S. export net sales as of May 21. Weekly U.S. cotton export shipments continued just below USDA’s export target level. Reported demand indicators included inactive to active spot trading, very light to good demand, and light to moderate supplies, all depending on the region.
Through Thursday, May 28, the daily shifts in ICE cotton open interest were mixed, i.e., either lower or higher compared to the previous day. The regular Tuesday speculative snapshot (represented by the CFTC’s CIT “Supplemental” report for May 26) saw mixed speculative positioning that was dominated by new shorting. Specifically, there were 519 more hedge fund longs, week over week. This was outweighed by a 1,662 increase in hedge fund shorts compared to last week. Lastly, the index fund net long position contracted by 1,687 contracts, week over week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market, but one that is perhaps lifting. The rising certified stock levels in early 2026, and again in April, could reflect weak commercial demand for U.S. cotton. It remains true that unfixed call sales (representing potential/eventual futures buying by mills) have been at a relatively low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side. But more recently, unfixed call sales have been stabilizing/rising (see red line in the chart below). This is bringing them more into balance with unfixed call purchases, and contributing to futures buying.
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