Market Fundamentals/Outlook

Market fundamentals refer to the forces of supply and demand in determining price.  Changing expectations of key supply and demand variables can be influential on both short and long term price behavior.

The discussion of the 2021 crop fundamentals is relevant from now until the end of the 2021/22 marketing year (next July).  In general, the fundamental outlook for prices is negatively related to the outlook for ending stocks.  That is, prices should fundamentally move higher when we expect ending stocks to be lower (and vice versa). There is still time for  caveats to influence the general fundamental picture.

The discussion of the 2022 crop fundamentals is based on the same logic as for old crop.  However, since there is even more time for 2022/23 variables to play out, the caveats are even more relevant.

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