The southwest monsoon is a summer-time rainy pattern that moves over India from south to north.  It usually starts in June and lasts through September.  Since India has lots of rain-fed crop production, the timing and quantity of monsoon rains is really important to planting and yield of Indian crops, including cotton.  In years when India has a weak or late monsoon, it can reduce cotton supplies and affect world cotton prices.   In years when India has a timely, above average monsoon, the resulting surplus of Indian cotton can result in exported surpluses that compete with U.S. exports.

The 2026 southwest monsoon may be influenced by the El Niño climate pattern, which is associated with weaker monsoon events.  Indeed, here is an example of a weak monsoon forecast.  The monsoon arrived several days late, but still within the first week of June.  The expectation for weaker monsoon under the influence of El Niño has so far been realized.  But after being stalled/slow for two weeks, the spread of the monsoon picked up in the third week of June.  July stared with a resurgence to above average rainfall levels, but finished average.  The August forecast is for weaker monsoon rainfall.  As of September 9, cumulative monsoon rain over India this summer is 15% below normal.