Indian Monsoon

The southwest monsoon is a seasonal rainy pattern that moves over India from south to north.  Here is the current map indicating the arrival of monsoon rains over India.  It usually starts in June and lasts through September.  Since India has lots of rain-fed crop production, the timing and quantity of monsoon rains is really important to planting and yield of Indian crops, including cotton.  In years when India has a weak or late monsoon, it can reduce cotton supplies and affect world cotton prices.   In years when India has a timely, above average monsoon, the resulting surplus of Indian cotton turns into exports that compete with U.S. exports.

The 2022 southwest monsoon started a couple of days early and was are forecasted to 103% of average, which fits the pattern in La Niña years like 2022.  However, the rainfall in June was 8% below average.  Since July monsoon rains appear to have picked up in intensity, particularly in important cotton growing states like Gujarat.  Through September 1, the important west-central cotton growing states have received normal to excess rains (i.e., viewed cumulatively over the season).  Pakistan is receiing excess monsoon rains, leading to historic and deadly flooding this summer.

 

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