Indian Monsoon

The southwest monsoon is a seasonal rainy pattern that moves over India from south to north.  Here is the current map forecasting the arrival of monsoon rains over India.  It usually starts in June and lasts through September.   Since India has lots of rain fed crop production, the timing and quantity of monsoon rains is really important to planting and yield of Indian crops, including cotton.  In years when India has a weak or late monsoon, it can reduce cotton supplies and affect world cotton prices.   In years when India has a timely, above average monsoon, the resulting surplus of Indian cotton turns into exports that compete with U.S. exports.

The 2020 southwest monsoon rains started off strong in June and have continued strong.  As of mid-July, some important cotton growing regions (like Gujurat and Andhra Pradesh) have received above average rainfall.  That suggests the possibility of above average crop production, unless there are negative side effects from excess rains (i.e., flooding damage, pests).

 

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