Indian Monsoon

The southwest monsoon is a summer-time rainy pattern that moves over India from south to north.  Here is the map indicating the expected arrival dates of monsoon rains over India in 2023.  It usually starts in June and lasts through September.  Since India has lots of rain-fed crop production, the timing and quantity of monsoon rains is really important to planting and yield of Indian crops, including cotton.  In years when India has a weak or late monsoon, it can reduce cotton supplies and affect world cotton prices.   In years when India has a timely, above average monsoon, the resulting surplus of Indian cotton turns into exports that compete with U.S. exports.

The 2023 southwest monsoon was initially forecast as normal, despite the likely El Niño  condition which normally implies deficient monsoon rainfall amounts.  The situation remains a bit mixed.  As of July 2, the monsoon rains had covered the entirety of India, which is about six days earlier than usual.  However, the amount of rainfall is 10% below average.  The hope in India appeared to be for at least normal rains in July, and possibly even making up for the June deficit.  But after damaging rains in some northern areas in July, the monsoon rains have shifted into a lull in early August.  The cumulative 2023 monsoon rainfall in the important west central states shows to be a deficit through August 17.  This reflects an historically dry August and renewed concerns about Indian crops.

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