The week ending Friday, August 8 saw ICE cotton futures trend higher, then dip, then stumble to the weekly lows, then finally bounce partially back (see chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The Dec’25 contract settled Friday at 66.60 cents per pound, while Dec’26 settled at 68.93 cents. Chinese cotton prices were mostly higher across the week, while the A-Index of world prices was mixed.
There were similarities in the price patterns of grain futures this week. CBOT corn and KC wheat futures slid early in the week before bouncing Wednesday and shifting into an up-trend. CBOT soybeans followed more of widely gyrating sideways pattern. ICE WTI crude oil futures trended steadily lower across the week. The U.S. dollar index started off flat, then trended lower, then flattened out again. Other macro influences (i.e., GDP, inflation, and interest rate policy) remained mixed in their expectation and implication for slow economic growth.
Cotton-focused market influences this week saw continued weekly reports of very light to moderate regional demand for U.S. cotton. Weekly net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year continued modest at only 109,300 bales of upland, which implies so-so demand.
Current crop influences included showers over western Oklahoma and eastern Texas, as well as more significant showers over the Northern Gulf Coast and Southeast regions. On the other side of the world, the precocious Indian monsoon has brought above average rains that have likely increased plantings of summer sewn crops, including cotton. The second half of the monsoon season is forecasted to be average in August and above average in September. This could boost Indian and Pakistani production, perhaps at the expense of demand for U.S. exports.
For the week ending August 7, the day-to-day shifts in ICE cotton open interest started off (through Tuesday) with rising open interest and rising price settlements, suggesting new long positioning. The daily open interest pattern was more mixed over Wednesday/Thursday, with declining price settlements. The regular weekly (Tuesday, August 5) snapshot of speculative open interest did show some long positioning with 5,899 new hedge fund longs, week over week. However, this was more than outweighed by 13,681 extra hedge fund short positions, reinforced by a 3,492 contract shrinkage in the index trader net long position, week over week.
The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market. It remains true that unfixed call sales (by mills) are at an historically low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side. In terms of ratios, unfixed call purchases (by suppliers) outweigh unfixed call sales by two-fold across all contracts, as of August 1.
For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.