The A-Index of world cotton prices (the yellow line) generally parallels ICE cotton futures (the green line) at a premium. China’s internal cotton price (the blue line) is higher than world prices, in part from policy distortion. Their government reserve has been whittled down to less than 12 million bales, which reduces some of the artificial price support. The big remaining fundamental questions include:
1) What sized reserve will China maintain for the long-term?
2) What is their policy for rotating that reserve inventory? Will the major purchases for the reserve in 2020 continue in 2021?
3) Are the Chinese expanding their reserve, i.e., stockpiling for an anticipated future shortage?