Commitment Of Traders

This chart shows the net position of both hedge funds (green shaded) and index funds (blue shaded), with the scale measured in futures contracts. One contract is about 100 bales. The combined net speculative position has an apparent influence on price (the red line) in the short run (see here for more discussion and interpretation). Statistically, the hedge fund position changes of 10,000 contracts higher or lower is associated with a little under a cent move by ICE futures in the same direction.

Note:  Not surprisingly, the fluctuations in the hedge fund position correlate very well with the shifts in the pattern of open interest, although sometimes there is a lag. The data from this chart come from the CFTC Commitment of Traders report.  Additional description and interpretation of the CFTC data is available here.

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