2023/24 Fundamentals and Outlook

Fundamental analysis involves comparing major supply and demand variables like production, consumption, and ending stocks.  This is usually based on organized tables, the prime example of which are published by USDA, and reproduced below:

Updated world cotton supply/demand.  USDA’s month-over-month adjustments in the April WASDE report reflected very minor adjustments to the world cotton balance sheet, which is not unusual for the latter marketing year period.  World beginning stocks were 360,000 bales fewer than for the previous month, mostly in West Africa (-230,000), Central Asia (-80,000) and Mexico (-50,000).   The April adjustments to world production reflected a tiny 40,000 bale cut, month over month, mostly in Mexico (-30,000).  World imports and exports were each raised by 710,000 bales compared to the previous month.  The import adjustment resulted from a large 1.3 million bale increase in Chinese imports which was whittled down by small cuts in Pakistan (-400,000), Indonesia (-100,000), Central Asia (-50,000), Thailand (-50,000), and Mexico (-20,000). Similarly the April adjustment to world exports involved increases in Brazil (+500,000), Australia (+250,000), Turkey (+150,000), India (+100,000), Central Asia (+20,000) and Pakistan (+20,000), less the EU (-150,000), West Africa (-120,000) and Mexico (-20,000).  World consumption was reduced by 120,000 bales resulting from a 500,000 bale increase in China that was mostly offset by cuts in Pakistan (-300,000), Turkey (-200,000), Indonesia (-50,000), Mexico (-20,000), Central Asia (-10,000), and Thailand (-10,000).  The bottom line of all these net adjustments was a net 260,000 cut in world ending stocks, month over month. The direction and resulting level of the adjustment would be price neutral according to history and economic theory.

Updated U.S. cotton supply/demand.  The April U.S. balance sheet was unchanged from the previous month.  While the remaining level of ending stocks is historically tight, the monthly non-adjustment is price neutral.

Fundamental analysis is fairly straightforward in its application.  However, there are a lot of moving parts and uncertainty in balancing supply and demand variables.  The price outlook can also be influenced by non-fundamental factors, particularly in the short run.

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