The blue line in the chart above shows actual weekly export shipments through the past week of the 2021/22 marketing year (converted from running bales into 480 lb. statistical bales, using USDA’s conversion factor of 1.03). The week ending September 16 saw export shipments that were below par. But it’s early. And there are reportedly complicating external factors affecting the availability of trucks, containers, etc.
Another indicator of export demand is the percent of U.S. export total commitments to USDA’s forecast export target of 15.5 million bales. Total commitments of all cotton as of September 2, 2021 include 1,394,516 bales worth of accumulated exports of all cotton, i.e., pima and upland sold and actually shipped. It also includes another 5,456,050 running bales of pima and upland sold but not yet shipped (“outstanding sales”). The total of accumulated exports and outstanding sales is 6,850,566 running bales of total commitments which, after converting to statistical bales, is 46% of USDA’s 15.5 million bale target for 2021/22 U.S. exports. That puts 2021/22 export commitments in the lower half of the historical pack for this point in the marketing year (see blue line below).