Weekly Export Shipments and Total Commitments

Discussion
The blue line in the chart above shows actual weekly export shipments through the past week of the 2021/22 marketing year (converted from running bales into 480 lb. statistical bales, using USDA’s conversion factor of 1.03). With barely more than a week remaining in the marketing year, the week ending July 28 saw export shipments below the needed pace to reach USDA’s 14 million bale target.  This implies some carryover into the 2022/23 marketing year, and/or a downshifting of the 14 million bale target.

Another indicator of export demand is the percent of U.S. export total commitments to USDA’s forecast export target of 14.0 million bales.  Total commitments of all cotton as of  July 28, 2022 include 13,512,610 bales worth of accumulated exports of all cotton, i.e., pima and upland sold and actually shipped.  It also includes another 2,555,301 running bales of pima and upland sold but not yet shipped (“outstanding sales”).  The total of accumulated exports and outstanding sales is 16,067,911 running bales of total commitments which, after converting to statistical bales, is 112% of USDA’s 14.0 million bale target for 2021/22 U.S. exports.  Again, that suggests that either the 14 million target will be lowered, and/or some of the outstanding sales will be rolled forward into the 2022/23 marketing year.

 

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