Weekly Export Shipments and Total Commitments

Discussion
The blue line in the chart above shows actual weekly export shipments through the past week of the 2021/22 marketing year (converted from running bales into 480 lb. statistical bales, using USDA’s conversion factor of 1.03). The week ending May 26 saw export shipments above the needed pace — a big improvement over the first half of the marketing year.  There were reportedly complicating external factors earlier in the year involving the availability of trucks, drivers, shipping containers, etc. which could be constraining export shipments.  Even for larger, more integrated shippers there remains issues with getting shipments onto ships.

Another indicator of export demand is the percent of U.S. export total commitments to USDA’s forecast export target of 14.75 million bales.  Total commitments of all cotton as of  May 26, 2021 include 10,494,919 bales worth of accumulated exports of all cotton, i.e., pima and upland sold and actually shipped.  It also includes another 5,234,563 running bales of pima and upland sold but not yet shipped (“outstanding sales”).  The total of accumulated exports and outstanding sales is 15,729,482 running bales of total commitments which, after converting to statistical bales, is 110% of USDA’s 14.75 million bale target for 2021/22 U.S. exports.  That puts 2021/22 export commitments in the upper middle of the historical pack for this point in the marketing year (see blue line below).

 

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