Weekly Export Shipments and Total Commitments

Discussion
The blue line in the chart above shows actual weekly export shipments through the past week of the 2022/23 marketing year (converted from running bales into 480 lb. statistical bales, using USDA’s conversion factor of 1.03). The week ending January 19 saw export shipments below the needed average weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s 12.0 million bale target.  It should be noted, however, that weekly export shipments tend to be seasonally lower in the fall and higher in the spring/summer.

Another indicator of export demand is the percent of U.S. export total commitments to USDA’s forecast export target of 12.0 million bales.  Total commitments of all cotton as of  January 19, 2023 include 4,446,340 bales worth of accumulated exports of all cotton, i.e., pima and upland sold and actually shipped since August 1.  It also includes another 4,966,846 running bales of pima and upland sold but not yet shipped (“outstanding sales”).  The total of accumulated exports and outstanding sales is 9,413,186 running bales of total commitments which, after converting to statistical bales, is 81% of USDA’s 12.0 million bale target for 2022/23 U.S. exports.  This is on par with the historical pace of export sales.

 

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