Discussion
The blue line in the chart above shows actual weekly export shipments for the 2023/24 marketing year (converted from running bales into 480 lb. statistical bales, using USDA’s conversion factor of 1.03). The week ending July 18 saw export shipments continue to remain below the weekly average pace needed to reach USDA’s 11.6 million bale target.  With the marketing year about to end, we will thus not hit USDA’s target level of exports.  The 2023/24 level of final exports will be recalculated/reported in the August WASDE report.

Another indicator of export demand is the percent of U.S. export total commitments to USDA’s forecast export target of 11.6 million bales. Total commitments of all cotton as of July 18, 2024 included 10,517,926 bales worth of accumulated exports of all cotton, i.e., pima and upland sold and actually shipped since August 1. It also includes another 2,779,296 running bales of pima and upland sold but not yet shipped (“outstanding sales”). The total of accumulated exports and outstanding sales is 13,297,222 running bales of total commitments which, after converting to statistical bales, is 118% of USDA’s 11.6 million bale target for 2023/24 U.S. exports. This is in the middle of historical seasonal patterns of export sales as a percent of total forecasted exports (see below).  The 118% suggests that the 11.6 million bale target was too high.  Perhaps some of the old net export sales will either be cancelled or, more likely, rolled forward into the next marketing year (because of the sub-par pace of shipping).