The blue line in the chart above shows actual weekly export shipments through the past week of the 2019/20 marketing year (converted from running bales into 480 lb. statistical bales, using USDA’s conversion factor of 1.03). The red line shows the level of exports of all U.S. cotton (i.e., upland and pima) required to meet the USDA 2019/20 projection (15 million bales) of what total exports will be by July 31, 2020. The level of actual shipments is around the level needed to reach USDA’s target.
Another indicator of export demand is the percent of U.S. export total commitments to USDA’s forecasted export target of 15 million bales. Total commitments of all cotton as of July 2, 2020 include 13,336,144 bales worth of accumulated exports of all cotton, i.e., pima and upland sold and actually shipped. It also includes another 4,277,812 running bales of pima and upland sold but not yet shipped (“outstanding sales”). The total of these is 17,613,956 running bales of total commitments which, after converting to statistical bales, is 121% of USDA’s 15 million bale target for 2019/20 U.S. exports. I expect the difference between total commitments and USDA’s final export number to be reconciled by a combination of old crop sales cancellations and rolling sold crop sales forward for shipment in the next marketing year.