The blue line in the chart above shows actual weekly export shipments through the past week of the 2018/19 marketing year (converted from running bales into 480 lb. statistical bales, using USDA’s conversion factor of 1.03). The red line shows the level of exports of all U.S. cotton (i.e., upland and pima) required to meet the USDA projection (15.0 million bales) of what total exports will be by July 31, 2019. The level actual shipments is currently below that level, circa April 11.
Another indicator of export demand is the percent of U.S. export total commitments to USDA’s forecasted export target of 15.0 million bales. Total commitments of all cotton as of April 11, 2019 include 8,274,931 running bales worth of accumulated exports of all cotton, i.e., pima and upland sold and actually shipped. It also includes another 5,795,033 running bales of pima and upland sold but not yet shipped (“outstanding sales”). The total of these is 14,069,964 running bales of total commitments which, after converting to statistical bales, is 97% of USDA’s 15.0 million bale target for 2018/19 U.S. exports. Such a percentage is on track with recent history (see the black line on the chart below).