Discussion

The blue line in the chart above shows actual weekly export shipments for the 2025/26 marketing year (converted from running bales into 480 lb. statistical bales, using USDA’s conversion factor of 1.03). The week ending April 2 saw export shipments maintain above the weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s export target of 12 million bales.  As the spring progresses we expect to see this continued seasonal pattern of average to above-average shipments, provided it isn’t disrupted by global conflict.

Another indicator of export demand is the percent of U.S. export total commitments to USDA’s forecast export target of 12.0 million bales. Total commitments of all cotton as of April 2 included 6,654,600 bales worth of accumulated exports of all cotton, i.e., pima and upland sold and actually shipped since August 1. It also includes another 3,956,400 running bales of pima and upland sold but not yet shipped (“outstanding sales”). The total of accumulated exports and outstanding sales is 10,611,000 running bales of total commitments which, after converting to statistical bales, is 91% of USDA’s 12.0 million bale target for projected 2025/26 U.S. exports. This is historically low compared to the previous ten years of export sales as a percent of total forecasted exports (see green line in the chart below).  This can be interpreted as an indicator of weak demand for U.S. cotton exports, which is related to the competitiveness of our main export rivals.

Lastly, the chart below shows total commitments of U.S. cotton just to China (the total height of the bar) as the sum of end-of-season accumulated exports and outstanding sales.  The point of this chart is that U.S. exports to China in 25/26 (through April 2) remain historically low, as they were during the entire 2024/25 marketing year.  Hence there is currently little direct impact of Chinese tariffs on U.S. cotton.