This graph shows monthly world stocks-to-use estimates (in percent) matched against the A-index of world cotton prices (in cents per lb). As usual, stocks-to-use moves in the opposite direction from world prices. An apparent key threshold is 40% world stocks-to-use (dark horizontal line) which is the point where major trends in world prices (either up or down trends) tend to change direction. The massive build-up in world stocks, with over half of it represented by an out-of-circulation Chinese reserve, distorted the historical relationship between world price and world stocks-to-use. However, the whittling down of world ending stocks in recent years reflects the slow return to more balance supply and demand.
Welcome to the educational website of Dr. John Robinson in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University.
The website focuses on farm-level implementation of strategies for Texas cotton growers to deal with yield and price risk. Contact me to receive a weekly e-mail notice of when the latest edition is posted on-line. In addition, we provide daily crop market news and commentary on Twitter (@aggie_prof) and also on the Master Marketer facebook page. We welcome your feedback and interaction in these social media.