Put Spreads on New Crop

On Thursday, April 11, ICE Dec’19 futures settled at 76.59 cents per pound, down from the eighties earlier in the 2018 (see the blue line in the chart below).  A 75 put on Dec’19 cost 3.16 cents per pound April 11, which implies a short futures position just under 72 cents per pound. Subtracting off your expected harvest-time cash basis implies a minimum cash price somewhere in the upper 60s.

A 75:68 put spread on Dec’19 ICE cotton cost 2.30 cents per pound (the green line below), which would protect against the more limited risk of Dec’19 falling from 75 to 68 cents. Such insurance has become more relevant and more affordable as the Dec’19 has recently rallied toward the upper seventies.

 

 

 

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