The southwest monsoon is a summer-time rainy pattern that moves over India from south to north.  Here is the map indicating the expected arrival dates of monsoon rains over India in 2023.  It usually starts in June and lasts through September.  Since India has lots of rain-fed crop production, the timing and quantity of monsoon rains is really important to planting and yield of Indian crops, including cotton.  In years when India has a weak or late monsoon, it can reduce cotton supplies and affect world cotton prices.   In years when India has a timely, above average monsoon, the resulting surplus of Indian cotton can result in exported surpluses that compete with U.S. exports.

2024 seems a bit different in that above average rains have resulted in damaging flooding.  Coupled with reduced planted acreage, India’s cotton production is forecasted to be lower, year-over-year.

The 2024 southwest monsoon forecast has been changing.  It was forecasted to be above normal.   This forecast was influenced by predicted onset of La Nina conditions by late summer, perhaps bolstering the August and September monsoon rains.  In keeping with the aforementioned forecast, the 2024 monsoon arrived two days early.  But after the early arrival, the spread of the monsoon rains was then delayed, especially in some of the important west-central cotton growing states.  After this the monsoon pattern returned to normal in July.   The monsoon rains were above average in August and are forecast to continue above average in September.