The southwest monsoon is a summer-time rainy pattern that moves over India from south to north.  It usually starts in June and lasts through September.  Since India has lots of rain-fed crop production, the timing and quantity of monsoon rains is really important to planting and yield of Indian crops, including cotton.  In years when India has a weak or late monsoon, it can reduce cotton supplies and affect world cotton prices.   In years when India has a timely, above average monsoon, the resulting surplus of Indian cotton can result in exported surpluses that compete with U.S. exports.

The 2025 monsoon arrived on May 24 which is eight days earlier than the normal June 1 start date.   This translates to a forecast of 106% of the normal monsoon rainfall, implying greater plantings and greater production.  Having arrived, the monsoon stalled in early June, but is forecasted to pick up the pace during the second week of June.