Discussion
The blue line in the chart above shows actual weekly export shipments for the 2024/25 marketing year (converted from running bales into 480 lb. statistical bales, using USDA’s conversion factor of 1.03). The week ending May 15 saw export shipments remain above the weekly average pace needed to reach USDA’s 11.1 million bale target.

Another indicator of export demand is the percent of U.S. export total commitments to USDA’s forecast export target of 11.1 million bales. Total commitments of all cotton as of May 15, 2025 included 8,722,989 bales worth of accumulated exports of all cotton, i.e., pima and upland sold and actually shipped since August 1. It also includes another 2,573,901 running bales of pima and upland sold but not yet shipped (“outstanding sales”). The total of accumulated exports and outstanding sales is 11,296,890 running bales of total commitments which, after converting to statistical bales, is 109% of USDA’s 11.1 million bale target for 2024/25 U.S. exports. This is in the upper portion of the historical seasonal patterns of export sales as a percent of total forecasted exports (see below).

Lastly, the chart below shows total commitments of U.S. cotton just to China (the total height of the bar) as the sum of end-of-season accumulated exports and outstanding sales.  The point of this chart is that U.S. exports to China in 24/25 (through May 15) are historically low, hence there is currently little direct impact of Chinese tariffs on U.S. cotton.