It is never too early to develop a marketing plan for the next crop year.
Longer run price outcomes for the 2026 crop depend on expectations of supply and demand. The first supply-related question is how much acreage will be planted. The price of competing crops, relative to cotton prices, is an important consideration to the level of planted acreage. The chart below shows a fairly strong relationship between the level of U.S. upland and pima cotton planted (as measured on June 30) and the ratio of December CBOT corn futures and ICE cotton futures during the first quarter of the year. The higher the ratio, the less cotton is planted. Of course, there are other important competing crops as well: sorghum, soybeans, peanuts, and perhaps wheat. And there are other non-price influences, including how dry it is in Texas, the insurance base price, fixed cost influences, and the psychological influence of the preceding growing season. But the price ratio of corn to cotton appears to capture a lot of these other influences in explaining variations in cotton plantings.
What does the above chart imply for 2026? As of August 1, the Dec’26 CBOT corn/Dec’26 ICE cotton price ratio is 6.6 (i.e., $4.50 corn divided by 69-cent cotton). Assuming this ratio prevails during Q1 of 2026 , it is historically associated with between 10.0 and 10.5 million acres of all cotton.
Assuming 10.3 million acres of all cotton in 2026, and further assuming ten-year Olympic averages of abandonment (21%) and yield (869 lbs) per harvested acre, the result is a healthy crop of 14.7 million bales. Further assuming similar demand variable levels as for the 2025 crop, the result is roughly 5 million bales of ending stocks of U.S. cotton in 2025/26. That outcome is neutral to modestly bearish for prices. As of August 1, ICE Dec’26 futures are showing a little more optimism with a trading range between 68 and 70 cents, or about a two cent spread over Dec’25 futures. Commodity futures prices are generally viewed as reasonable forecasts of future spot prices, according to theory and statistical evidence.
Caveats. The price ratio approach to forecasting planted acreage will be replaced by grower survey results, beginning at Beltwide (January 7) and continuing with the NCC’s survey release (February 9) and USDA’s Prospective Plantings report (March 31) and Acreage report (June 30).
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center sees rising roughly equal chances for continuing ENSO-neutral conditions as the development of La Niña conditions during the winter. The latter would imply more dryness and higher abandonment during 2026.