Market Fundamentals/Outlook

Market fundamentals refer to the forces of supply and demand in determining price.  Changing expectations of key supply and demand variables can be influential on both short and long term price behavior.

The discussion of the 2016 crop fundamentals is relevant from now until the end of the 2016/17 marketing year.  In general, the fundamental outlook for prices is negatively related to the outlook for ending stocks.  That is, prices should fundamentally move higher when we expect ending stocks to be lower (and vice versa). With the short time remaining in this marketing year, there is little time for  caveats to influence the general fundamental picture.

The discussion of the 2017 crop fundamentals is based on the same logic as for old crop.  However, since there is even more time for 2017/18 variables to play out, the caveats are even more relevant.

Click on any of these topics to see further analysis and discussion. (You can also click on them from the pull down menu in the tab above.)

 

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