Fundamental supply/demand factors are the long-run and over-riding determinants of cotton price movements. It should be obvious from my discussion of specific technical indicators that I take technical analysis with a grain of salt. I am not aware of any current research showing the validity or reliability of various technical indicators as predictors of near-term cotton price movements. I do, however, have anecdotal evidence that many cotton brokers, speculators, floor traders, merchants, grower/hedgers, and index fund managers pay attention to technical indicators. And during the last four years I observed speculative buying or selling lead cotton futures futures either up or down between five and ten cents apparently based on little more than technical issues. If such price moves could hurt or help your marketing plan, then that is a valid reason for paying some attention to technical analysis.
Welcome to the educational website of Dr. John Robinson in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University.
The website focuses on farm-level implementation of strategies for Texas cotton growers to deal with yield and price risk. Contact me to receive a weekly e-mail notice of when the latest edition is posted on-line. In addition, we provide daily crop market news and commentary on Twitter (@aggie_prof) and also on the Master Marketer facebook page. We welcome your feedback and interaction in these social media.