Indian Monsoon

The southwest monsoon is a seasonal rainy pattern that moves over India from south to north.  Here is the current map forecasting the arrival of monsoon rains over India.  It usually starts in June and lasts through September.   Since India has lots of rain fed crop production, the timing and quantity of monsoon rains is really important to planting and yield of Indian crops, including cotton.  In years when India has a weak or late monsoon, it can reduce cotton supplies and affect world cotton prices.   In years when India has a timely, above average monsoon, the resulting surplus of Indian cotton turns into exports that compete with U.S. exports.  The 2017 southwest monsoon was originally forecast to be normal.  It began arriving about a week early.  This raises the possibility of it being an above-average rainfall event.  Such an outcome would likely contribute to Indian cotton supplies, including exportable surpluses.  Then again,  looking at the map, it appears that the progression of 2017 monsoon rains might be a little behind the average pace.  The current Indian government forecast is for the 2017 monsoon rains to be 98% of normal, which is pretty good for government work.

 

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